Long-Blackfish
0x1461da5f64f3aae303d4ce6c613f6a25363fb97e
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.5K
Total PnL
$46.31
Realised
$53.13
Win rate
52%
101 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?
290 shares @ 74.0¢·now 55.9¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$162.10
$-52.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?
282 shares @ 23.4¢·now 44.1¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$124.72
$58.55
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 14?
122 shares @ 70.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$122.40
$36.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 14?
90 shares @ 57.9¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$88.84
$36.84
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 14?
78 shares @ 54.4¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$68.17
$25.77
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 14?
55 shares @ 93.4¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$53.88
$2.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 14?
52 shares @ 61.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$51.59
$19.62
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 14?
51 shares @ 90.7¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$50.69
$4.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on July 14?
48 shares @ 39.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$47.98
$29.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 14?
67 shares @ 48.3¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$37.92
$5.52
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 14?$4.10Jul 14, 05:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on July 13?$3.12Jul 14, 05:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?$0.04Jul 14, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?$3.48Jul 14, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?$0.88Jul 14, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?$3.96Jul 14, 05:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?$1.06Jul 14, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 14?$1.01Jul 14, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?$0.44Jul 14, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?$4.40Jul 14, 05:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 14?$1.17Jul 14, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on July 14?$1.35Jul 14, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on July 14?$1.50Jul 14, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 14?$0.23Jul 14, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?$6.53Jul 14, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on July 14?$18.38Jul 14, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 15?$13.60Jul 14, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?$2.10Jul 14, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?$13.72Jul 14, 05:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 14?$0.22Jul 14, 05:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 101 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 28/100.
101 closed markets, 52% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $4.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 14, 05:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 05:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 101 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.