Skeletal-Liver
0x1491f3faea8f55eb683eea438d4d6367eb84fd70
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$13.7K
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$-319.04
Win rate
28%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
1205 shares @ 94.3¢·now 93.7¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$1.1K
$-6.68
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?
1000 shares @ 94.0¢·now 98.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$985.00
$45.00
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?
764 shares @ 81.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$630.09
$11.24
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.0T by July 31?
452 shares @ 96.0¢·now 93.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$421.49
$-12.43
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
402 shares @ 95.5¢·now 98.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$395.37
$11.46
- NO
Will MrBeast say "Fight" during his next gaming YouTube video?
305 shares @ 91.5¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$280.60
$1.53
- YES
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?
500 shares @ 69.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$272.50
$-72.50
- NO
Will MrBeast say "Win" or "Winner" during his next gaming YouTube video?
284 shares @ 90.1¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$259.44
$4.05
- YES
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by December 31?
500 shares @ 70.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$252.50
$-97.50
- NO
Will MrBeast say "Best" during his next gaming YouTube video?
267 shares @ 90.5¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$249.46
$8.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Marlene Galán-Woods be the AZ-01 Democratic nominee?$8.68Jul 21, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 6, 2026?$23.05Jul 21, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $62 Week of July 20 2026?$1.61Jul 21, 22:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast say "Win" or "Winner" during his next gaming YouTube video?$45.39Jul 21, 22:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gina Swoboda be the Arizona Secretary of State Republican nominee?$4.19Jul 21, 22:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gina Swoboda be the Arizona Secretary of State Republican nominee?$0.21Jul 21, 22:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?$0.07Jul 21, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $22.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?$2.21Jul 21, 21:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Gianni" or "Infantino" this week?$30.10Jul 21, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Haley Stevens win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?$61.00Jul 21, 21:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill "I Will Find You: Limited Series" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?$39.15Jul 21, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.75T in 2026?$9.00Jul 21, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Total Crypto Market Cap hit 3.5T in 2026?$3.42Jul 21, 21:06 UTC
- MERGEOver $35M committed to the RipCars public sale?$20.10Jul 21, 20:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $35M committed to the RipCars public sale?$17.49Jul 21, 20:48 UTC
- MERGEOver $27.5M committed to the RipCars public sale?$20.00Jul 21, 20:38 UTC
- MERGEWill LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 12, 2026?$20.10Jul 21, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.0T by July 31?$398.69Jul 21, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $1.0T by July 31?$35.23Jul 21, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron sign his next NBA contract by August 12, 2026?$78.77Jul 21, 20:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
36 closed markets, 28% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $27.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 17:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 23:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.