Unfit-Lava
0x14c031ff0c90f1436f4a1a6a49cc58e069039bb8
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$1.52
Total PnL
$-75.96
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- YES
Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score
2 shares @ 66.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$1.52
$0.52
- NO
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?
22222 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-28.31
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
3250 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 9°C on March 19?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 50°F or higher on March 18?
334 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 18?
334 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
304 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 37°F or below on March 15?
174 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 46-47°F on March 18?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYArgentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score$1.01Jul 7, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.00Apr 11, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$2.00Apr 10, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$1.00Apr 10, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 7?$1.00Apr 8, 03:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$0.91Mar 31, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$0.10Mar 31, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?$11.11Mar 29, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?$2.05Mar 29, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?$5.00Mar 29, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?$3.00Mar 29, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?$1.00Mar 29, 16:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?$1.01Mar 28, 14:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?$5.17Mar 28, 07:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 23?$8.00Mar 25, 18:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 23?$10.00Mar 24, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 23?$0.70Mar 23, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 23?$2.40Mar 23, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 23?$3.84Mar 23, 08:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23?$1.77Mar 23, 07:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 17:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 17:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.