Firm-Watch
0x14cfd2e7cd319c96e85a817e1a5092431ab4ea49
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
4
Open notional
$5.39
Total PnL
$-1.02
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.34
$0.00
- NO
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$1.81
$-0.01
- NO
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $680b on June 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.24
$-0.00
- YES
Will AutoSnore: Snoring Recorder be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?
3 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-1.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?$1.82Jun 13, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $680b on June 30?$1.24Jun 13, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026?$2.34May 31, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$1.02May 31, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$1.04May 31, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMUS strike on Cuba by March 31?$1.25May 31, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$1.28May 31, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?$1.34May 31, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$1.37May 31, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?$1.42May 31, 02:47 UTC
- REDEEMHwang Kyo-ahn in jail by December 31?$2.60May 31, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?$1.42May 9, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?$1.34Apr 30, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$1.27Apr 29, 09:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$1.04Apr 28, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?$1.02Apr 14, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strike on Cuba by March 31?$1.24Mar 29, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$1.37Mar 28, 08:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYHwang Kyo-ahn in jail by December 31?$2.59Dec 30, 03:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on December 4?$1.69Dec 11, 00:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $9.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 17, 04:08 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 09:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.