0x1544956238a2d7d952ae25badc044822edc838ef
0x1544956238a2d7d952ae25badc044822edc838ef
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$127.50
Total PnL
$-49.04
Realised
$7.39
Win rate
60%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- NO
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
46 shares @ 86.1¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$41.88
$2.05
- YES
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?
37 shares @ 96.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$37.08
$1.18
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
31 shares @ 92.0¢·now 88.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.54
$-0.98
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
17 shares @ 93.4¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.44
$0.35
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?
35 shares @ 16.1¢·now 10.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.46
$-2.15
- YES
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.10
$0.71
- YES
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?
244 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.75
- YES
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?
72 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-36.83
- NO
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 29, 2026?
28 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- NO
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?
7 shares @ 34.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$8.42Jul 23, 06:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 5 and 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?$0.00Jul 23, 02:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture Pokrovka by July 31?$1.99Jul 23, 02:17 UTC
- REDEEMHarry Kane: 1+ shots$2.01Jul 23, 02:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?$3.74Jul 23, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?$35.90Jul 22, 20:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?$1.70Jul 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$0.55Jul 22, 07:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$0.55Jul 22, 06:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$0.12Jul 22, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$0.02Jul 22, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$0.04Jul 22, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$0.04Jul 22, 06:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$0.01Jul 22, 06:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$0.06Jul 22, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?$1.52Jul 22, 06:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?$3.36Jul 20, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?$6.57Jul 20, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?$0.58Jul 18, 18:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?$0.67Jul 18, 17:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 19:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 06:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.