Wallet digest

active

Activity score

48/100

Performance: thin sample

Open positions

117

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-621.80

Realised

$0.00

Win rate

n/a

too few closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 117

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET
137 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-4.30
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
73 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 2, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
49 shares @ 10.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
45 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
45 shares @ 11.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
42 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
42 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
42 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-4.99

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.18Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.69Jun 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.43Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.20May 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.04May 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.05May 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.00May 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.27May 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.22May 23, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$5.12May 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.92May 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.36May 20, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$12.79May 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.56May 17, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.62May 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.20May 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.44May 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.55May 11, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.20May 7, 00:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$5.16May 4, 09:18 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Do not mirror

0/100

read-only

Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.

No resolved edge sample

Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Blocked

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.

Wallet signal

pass

18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.

Resolved-only track record

block

Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity50 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence0 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry56 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk46 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 18
Avg trade size: $4.40
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 3, 22:35 UTC
Last active: Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 0 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 17:21:33 UTC·src:Polymarket Data