Vigilant-Dugout
0x155e0b7e3e87a632788cd971455e9049d16e69b7
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$75.74
Total PnL
$-349.15
Realised
$-87.60
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election?
133 shares @ 49.5¢·now 57.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$75.74
$9.94
- YES
Will César Acuña finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
3500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will Ben Flook win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?
2105 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-57.26
- YES
Will Dan Thomas be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?
1046 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-24.96
- YES
Will Clive Furness win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral election?
725 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
150 shares @ 10.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-16.48
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET
94 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET
73 shares @ 53.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-39.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET
63 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
51 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-24.32
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Kim Kwan-young win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election?$67.13May 16, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$67.39May 16, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$14.06May 14, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$88.72May 14, 01:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$88.87May 14, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$44.65May 14, 00:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$44.75May 14, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$40.14May 13, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$47.26May 13, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Simone Venturini win the 2026 Venice mayoral election?$77.01May 13, 09:30 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$10.64May 9, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET$10.04May 9, 02:53 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$1.09May 9, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET$5.10May 9, 02:46 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$0.00May 9, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$0.00May 9, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$2.50May 9, 00:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$2.44May 9, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.93May 9, 00:53 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$1.97May 9, 00:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $17.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 7, 12:39 UTC
- Last active
- May 16, 15:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".