Crowded-Reflection
0x15691449477aa15e72cdff51c7b6687b58bc4e0c
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-814.4K
Realised
$-48.3K
Win rate
27%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- NO
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025?
88389 shares @ 61.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-54.2K
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6?
53105 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2025$0.00
$-42.5K
- ZVEREV
French Open: Zverev vs. Djokovic
53000 shares @ 50.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2025$0.00
$-27.0K
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on October 19?
46793 shares @ 45.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-21.4K
- YANKEES
Athletics vs. Yankees
41106 shares @ 71.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2025$0.00
$-29.3K
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 19?
40020 shares @ 50.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 19, 2025$0.00
$-20.0K
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4?
39893 shares @ 63.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2025$0.00
$-25.2K
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on June 10?
34605 shares @ 40.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2025$0.00
$-14.2K
- UP
XRP Up or Down on July 1?
33701 shares @ 67.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2025$0.00
$-22.6K
- OG
Counter-Strike: OG vs 9z (BO3)
30973 shares @ 82.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$0.00
$-25.5K
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$0.85Feb 5, 17:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$22.7KFeb 5, 17:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$47.68Jan 15, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$111.66Jan 15, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$4.20Jan 15, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$10.50Jan 15, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$4.20Jan 15, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$17.50Jan 15, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$7.00Jan 15, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$77.00Jan 15, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$4.20Jan 15, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$121.80Jan 15, 08:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$7.00Jan 15, 08:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$10.45Jan 15, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$22.94Jan 15, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$7.40Jan 15, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$7.40Jan 15, 02:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$148.00Jan 15, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$118.40Jan 15, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?$118.40Jan 15, 01:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $825.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 20, 18:02 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 5, 17:32 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".