Heavy-Face
0x158541d9c94d2456e878b9af2c50607857c47379
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$105.34
Total PnL
$-87.44
Realised
$12.22
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
99 shares @ 12.6¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$23.22
$10.79
- NO
Will the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 9%?
20 shares @ 38.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Aug 26, 2026$15.70
$8.10
- YES
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?
13 shares @ 89.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$12.22
$0.71
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?
10 shares @ 82.4¢·now 92.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.93
$0.93
- YES
Moonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?
9 shares @ 92.0¢·now 92.1¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$7.98
$0.01
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
35 shares @ 8.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$7.17
$4.38
- YES
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
10 shares @ 53.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$6.33
$0.83
- YES
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
231 shares @ 1.3¢·now 1.7¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$3.81
$0.81
- YES
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
25 shares @ 31.0¢·now 15.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.80
$-3.97
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?
57 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.82
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?$2.96Jul 24, 08:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?$5.00Jul 24, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?$2.99Jul 24, 05:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dow say "Carbon" 5+ times during earnings call?$8.00Jul 23, 23:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 be at least 9%?$7.84Jul 23, 22:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on July 24?$2.98Jul 23, 22:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 23?$9.03Jul 23, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.79Jul 23, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above 1,930 on July 23, 4AM ET?$2.99Jul 23, 07:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 22, 2026?$10.00Jul 23, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 23?$8.00Jul 23, 03:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum above 1,940 on July 23, 12AM ET?$1.50Jul 23, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released by July 23, 2026?$2.70Jul 22, 23:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$8.00Jul 22, 22:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$12.25Jul 22, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$1.84Jul 22, 07:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$76.94Jul 22, 07:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$4.15Jul 22, 06:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$21.88Jul 22, 06:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 20 to July 22, 2026?$1.12Jul 22, 05:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $12.66
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 11:41 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 08:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.