Flaky-Nightlight
0x158858214550c9e15ecf7b92c02ad9de6b2a0f2f
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
22
Open notional
$84.85
Total PnL
$-153.32
Realised
$-11.78
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?
66 shares @ 60.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$66.16
$26.16
- NO
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
10 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$10.00
$2.30
- YES
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?
9 shares @ 23.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 16, 2025$8.70
$6.70
- YES
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
968 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-42.00
- NO
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
697 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-45.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting?
400 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Pope Leo visit Germany first?
295 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?
250 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July?
131 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Pope Leo visit Brazil first?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Pope Leo visit another country first?$10.38Jul 9, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?$0.00Jul 1, 18:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the top AI model on December 31?$1.00Jun 30, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran strike on Israel by Friday?$10.00Jun 13, 17:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?$10.80Jun 9, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model on July 31?$40.00Jun 2, 18:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $90k in May?$0.00Jun 2, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $200k in May?$0.00Jun 2, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $150k in May?$0.00Jun 2, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon tweet 175–199 times May 23–30?$0.00Jun 2, 18:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland?$0.00Jun 2, 18:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?$40.19Jun 2, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Cuomo win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?$8.70Jun 2, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$7.90Jun 1, 23:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?$7.70Jun 1, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?$1.00Jun 1, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?$20.00Jun 1, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$1.00Jun 1, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$1.00Jun 1, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$4.00Jun 1, 22:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $7.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 20:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 14:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".