Wallet digest

active

Activity score

57/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-515.8K

Realised

$5.3K

Win rate

69%

39 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Ethereum above $4400 on August 29?
80000 shares @ 47.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 29, 2025
$0.00
$-38.1K
UP
Ethereum Up or Down on August 29?
60750 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 29, 2025
$0.00
$-19.5K
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 11AM ET
49400 shares @ 43.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 27, 2025
$0.00
$-21.3K
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - August 29, 10AM ET
30638 shares @ 41.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 29, 2025
$0.00
$-12.6K
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on August 23?
30000 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 23, 2025
$0.00
$-3.2K
NO
Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July?
26086 shares @ 16.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025
$0.00
$-4.4K
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - August 27, 10AM ET
25245 shares @ 47.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 27, 2025
$0.00
$-12.0K
UP
Ethereum Up or Down on August 18?
24588 shares @ 19.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2025
$0.00
$-4.8K
NO
Will Ethereum reach $3100 in July?
23246 shares @ 19.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025
$0.00
$-4.4K
NO
Will Ethereum reach $3300 in July?
20419 shares @ 40.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025
$0.00
$-8.3K

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$25.00Feb 10, 04:47 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 5, 2AM ET$1.27Dec 6, 07:44 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 5, 1AM ET$10.00Dec 6, 07:44 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 5, 2AM ET$1.00Dec 5, 07:09 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 10PM ET$4.30Dec 5, 06:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 5, 1AM ET$7.00Dec 5, 06:03 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 11PM ET$1.00Dec 5, 04:18 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 11PM ET$1.00Dec 5, 04:12 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 11PM ET$1.00Dec 5, 04:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 10PM ET$4.00Dec 5, 03:37 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 7PM ET$7.07Dec 5, 02:59 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 7PM ET$3.00Dec 5, 00:26 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 7PM ET$3.00Dec 5, 00:23 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$5.00Dec 4, 10:05 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$0.00Dec 4, 10:05 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$10.00Dec 4, 09:51 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$1.22Dec 4, 09:50 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET$2.23Dec 4, 09:50 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - December 4, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET$6.10Dec 4, 09:23 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - December 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET$1.22Dec 4, 09:12 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

87/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

69% win rate over 39 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

39 closed markets, 69% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry90 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 29
Avg trade size: $4.36
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Dec 2, 06:28 UTC
Last active: Feb 10, 04:47 UTC
Win rate sample: 39 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 20:39:46 UTC·src:Polymarket Data