Wiggly-Strawman
0x15cbbb0aa2a6a3b19c3f6a3239d07eb4bb65515f
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-371.17
Realised
$29.05
Win rate
79%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 19?
525 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on April 16?
330 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-3.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 15?
296 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 17?
233 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on April 17?
227 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-7.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on April 15?
225 shares @ 14.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-32.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 18?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 17?
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 18?
188 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.77
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 19?
176 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.76
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 21?$1.13May 21, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 21?$1.01May 21, 02:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 21?$1.04May 20, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on May 22?$1.05May 20, 19:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 21?$1.08May 20, 19:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 21?$0.96May 20, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 20?$1.04May 20, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on May 20?$0.99May 20, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 20?$1.01May 20, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 20?$1.04May 20, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 21?$1.04May 20, 00:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or below on May 20?$1.04May 19, 23:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 21?$1.05May 19, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 21?$1.05May 19, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on May 21?$1.04May 19, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 20?$1.04May 19, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C or higher on May 20?$6.78May 19, 19:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 21?$0.96May 19, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 21?$0.58May 19, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 21?$0.71May 19, 18:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
79% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $1.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 08:23 UTC
- Last active
- May 21, 09:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.