Timely-Spur
0x15e108b7a4ebc658bdbe2cd41ec1ca0ba8261b3d
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
52
Open notional
$498.38
Total PnL
$-485.87
Realised
$-65.34
Win rate
19%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- NO
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in July?
48 shares @ 85.4¢·now 92.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$44.52
$3.19
- YES
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?
105 shares @ 73.7¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$44.10
$-33.30
- NO
Will monthly inflation stay flat (0.0%) in July?
60 shares @ 74.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$42.90
$-1.50
- NO
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?
45 shares @ 89.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$37.57
$-2.48
- YES
Will the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?
50 shares @ 72.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$36.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Brandon Lowe hit 40 or more home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?
45 shares @ 89.9¢·now 78.5¢·exp Oct 11, 2026$35.33
$-5.13
- NO
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (LOW) $11.75B by July 31?
40 shares @ 88.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$35.05
$-0.20
- YES
Will Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?
50 shares @ 73.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$34.49
$-2.00
- NO
Visa (V) Q3 cross border volume total growth (constant dollars) 9.5%-10.5%?
40 shares @ 87.0¢·now 79.9¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$31.96
$-2.84
- YES
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
45 shares @ 75.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$28.57
$-5.17
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Reserve Bank of India make no change to the policy repo rate after the August Meeting?$36.00Jul 28, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$3.20Jul 28, 17:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flutter Entertainment (FLUT) beat quarterly earnings?$36.50Jul 28, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$4.15Jul 28, 16:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in July?$4.50Jul 28, 11:15 UTC
- REWARD$3.73Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?$3.85Jul 27, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?$3.60Jul 27, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$2.95Jul 27, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?$2.80Jul 27, 18:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Petal" - Ariana Grande first week album sales be 350k or more?$1.90Jul 27, 17:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$3.74Jul 27, 11:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$4.43Jul 27, 11:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$0.69Jul 27, 11:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$35.76Jul 27, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$8.93Jul 27, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$8.92Jul 27, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$8.91Jul 27, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$8.11Jul 27, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$0.79Jul 27, 11:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
19% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $16.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 01:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.