Competent-Detail
0x15e9a4f23c85ce0d5b2016cd029d9185e9b3dacd
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
133
Open notional
$96.74
Total PnL
$-455.01
Realised
$-0.94
Win rate
57%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 133- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on July 8?
29 shares @ 41.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$18.13
$6.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 9?
33 shares @ 36.1¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$12.12
$0.11
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on July 8?
27 shares @ 39.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$11.67
$1.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 9?
29 shares @ 32.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$8.85
$-0.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 8?
71 shares @ 15.8¢·now 12.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$8.46
$-2.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 9?
17 shares @ 38.4¢·now 37.5¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$6.47
$-0.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 8?
19 shares @ 36.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$6.01
$-0.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 9?
16 shares @ 36.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$5.51
$-0.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 8?
9 shares @ 31.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$4.99
$2.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 8?
19 shares @ 39.5¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$4.65
$-3.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on July 9?$6.83Jul 8, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 8?$1.30Jul 8, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 8?$4.00Jul 8, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?$1.26Jul 8, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on July 8?$1.10Jul 8, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?$2.35Jul 8, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?$1.88Jul 8, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?$0.94Jul 8, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 9?$9.60Jul 8, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 8?$1.75Jul 8, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?$0.73Jul 8, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 8?$2.78Jul 8, 12:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?$1.10Jul 8, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 8?$2.59Jul 8, 11:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 8?$1.10Jul 8, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on July 8?$1.10Jul 8, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?$1.02Jul 8, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?$1.25Jul 8, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on July 8?$3.21Jul 8, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 8?$1.99Jul 8, 11:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
57% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 20:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 13:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.