Frigid-Taxpayer
0x163932a09f454dd49562265401106802e4a787de
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$6.18
Total PnL
$-4.53
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
2 shares @ 99.6¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.80
$0.00
- NO
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July?
1 shares @ 99.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.18
$-0.02
- NO
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.10
$0.00
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $700 in July?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.10
$0.00
- NO
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.1¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- YES
Will Stelian Bujduveanu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
829 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Trump’s approval rating be 48.0–49.9% on December 31?
300 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?
240 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will Abdoulaye Yéro Baldé win the 2025 Guinean presidential election?
101 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-1.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,600 in July?$1.00Jul 23, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $700 in July?$1.10Jul 14, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.80Jul 14, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?$1.10Jul 12, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July?$1.20Jul 12, 09:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?$2.81Jul 1, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?$2.00Jul 1, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$6.51Jun 30, 23:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?$11.43Jun 30, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?$13.23Jun 30, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June?$11.40Jun 29, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$6.50Jun 29, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in June?$13.20Jun 28, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?$2.80Jun 28, 06:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of June?$2.00Jun 26, 21:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $140 in May?$5.05Jun 1, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?$3.02Jun 1, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $40 in May?$1.01Jun 1, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$24.60Jun 1, 08:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?$2.01May 31, 21:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $4.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 5, 07:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 19:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.