Essential-Shell
0x164cb85e1718d0a8f95d588b08fbb52b34233e39
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
67
Open notional
$287.52
Total PnL
$-629.03
Realised
$-33.42
Win rate
42%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 67- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 14?
150 shares @ 57.5¢·now 97.3¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$145.96
$59.62
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 14?
60 shares @ 47.3¢·now 46.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$27.90
$-0.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 14?
27 shares @ 34.6¢·now 82.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$22.43
$12.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 14?
48 shares @ 25.4¢·now 43.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$20.81
$8.67
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 15?
40 shares @ 45.2¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$20.20
$2.10
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 15?
79 shares @ 20.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$18.99
$3.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 14?
27 shares @ 50.5¢·now 62.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$16.88
$3.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?
10 shares @ 34.7¢·now 61.7¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$6.17
$2.69
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?
15 shares @ 42.3¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$4.88
$-1.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 14?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 3.3¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$3.25
$-1.75
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?$3.72Jul 14, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 14?$4.22Jul 14, 06:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 14?$10.20Jul 14, 05:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?$13.20Jul 14, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 14?$14.10Jul 14, 05:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on July 14?$10.45Jul 14, 05:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?$6.45Jul 14, 05:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?$2.21Jul 14, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?$3.58Jul 14, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 14?$4.02Jul 14, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 14?$1.03Jul 14, 05:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 14, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 14?$4.81Jul 14, 05:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 14?$2.23Jul 14, 05:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?$17.24Jul 14, 05:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 14?$4.02Jul 14, 05:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 14?$3.61Jul 14, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 14?$3.33Jul 14, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on July 14?$6.46Jul 14, 05:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 14?$2.75Jul 14, 05:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
40/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $5.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 08:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 06:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.