Misguided-Transmission
0x1661b9da67d6002bf92edb4a4a7c7ce220b635b8
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-303.56
Realised
$0.69
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
1850 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
1020 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- JACOPO VASAMI
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET$1.05Jul 21, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET$5.17Jul 21, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$1.06Jul 20, 22:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$1.07Jul 20, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$1.05Jul 20, 21:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.04Jul 20, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.05Jul 20, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.06Jul 20, 21:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$0.00Jul 20, 21:01 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$5.26Jul 20, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$1.06Jul 20, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$3.32Jul 20, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$1.05Jul 20, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.05Jul 20, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.06Jul 20, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET$1.05Jul 20, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$2.40Jul 20, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$1.05Jul 20, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYXRP Up or Down - July 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$1.07Jul 20, 20:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 10:54 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 22:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.