Aching-Variable
0x1686b3e512052ba1ff70f8b48bbe0547be52c3f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-61.0K
Realised
$-313.18
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
143737 shares @ 28.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-41.3K
- YES
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
35714 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-5.0K
- YES
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-12?
26516 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-9.8K
- YES
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?
8320 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.4K
- YES
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
8266 shares @ 38.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.2K
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.72Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$232.4KJul 20, 01:47 UTC
- YIELD$12.97Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$12.23Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$12.13Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$12.02Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$12.03Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$5.52Jul 15, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$4.32Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$4.16Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$4.36Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$3.59Jul 11, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$3.89Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$28.09Jul 9, 21:16 UTC
- YIELD$3.86Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$3.82Jul 8, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$2.76Jul 7, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$2.59Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$2.58Jul 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$2.62Jul 4, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
6 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
$38.1K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $8.3K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 03:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.