0x16c1bf7ba1c95beee8c2600999b4d221886951f6
0x16c1bf7ba1c95beee8c2600999b4d221886951f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
184
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$-556.20
Win rate
1%
180 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 184- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 4?
24 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-6.48
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 10?
24 shares @ 29.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-6.86
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on April 10?
23 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-8.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on April 13?
22 shares @ 41.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-9.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 11?
22 shares @ 37.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-8.29
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 11?
22 shares @ 35.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-7.77
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on April 13?
22 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-7.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 11?
22 shares @ 31.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-6.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 66°F or higher on April 13?
22 shares @ 32.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-7.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 6?
22 shares @ 32.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-7.14
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 16?$0.00May 27, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 14?$0.00May 27, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on May 16?$0.00May 27, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 16?$0.00May 27, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 16?$0.00May 27, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 7?$0.00May 27, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 9?$0.00May 27, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 14?$0.00May 27, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on April 8?$0.00May 27, 17:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 13?$0.00May 27, 17:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 13?$0.00May 27, 17:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 13?$0.00May 27, 17:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 15?$7.20May 15, 18:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 16?$2.40May 15, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 16?$1.58May 15, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or higher on May 16?$1.25May 15, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 16?$1.66May 15, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on May 16?$1.56May 14, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on May 16?$2.80May 14, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on May 16?$2.08May 14, 19:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
63/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 180 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
180 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $1.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 10, 21:26 UTC
- Last active
- May 27, 17:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 180 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.