Colossal-Bookcase-Saloon
0x16c7337106a0b3a06ff863a1c06d8e2cbf7322cd
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$2.7K
Total PnL
$-1.3K
Realised
$275.91
Win rate
55%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- NO
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July?
511 shares @ 75.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$510.92
$123.81
- NO
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?
508 shares @ 95.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$507.43
$20.94
- NO
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.4% in July?
506 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$505.44
$0.26
- NO
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.6% or more in July?
286 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$285.46
$0.14
- NO
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.0% or less in July?
143 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$142.91
$5.57
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on August 12?
119 shares @ 48.4¢·now 99.9¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$118.85
$61.30
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 26°C or higher on August 12?
90 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$89.45
$-0.32
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
158 shares @ 47.6¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$81.57
$6.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on August 12?
67 shares @ 95.5¢·now 98.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$66.03
$1.72
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on August 12?
44 shares @ 76.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$37.82
$4.34
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on August 12?$0.50Aug 12, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 12?$1.71Aug 12, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on August 12?$5.11Aug 12, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?$19.60Aug 12, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 12?$3.75Aug 12, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 13?$4.25Aug 12, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 12?$3.22Aug 12, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 12?$2.69Aug 12, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 12?$4.33Aug 12, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 12?$2.00Aug 12, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 12?$4.81Aug 12, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?$4.85Aug 12, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MiniMax be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?$5.13Aug 12, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on August 12?$1.29Aug 12, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on August 12?$5.04Aug 12, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on August 12?$2.21Aug 12, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$5.07Aug 12, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$5.98Aug 12, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$8.96Aug 12, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$14.74Aug 12, 14:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $5.14
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 14:12 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 14:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.