Trusty-Factory
0x16cf28246d687bba4ebf1f7a354d88b20e32e3ba
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
110
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-324.60
Realised
$9.02
Win rate
81%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 110- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 22?
4 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-0.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 8?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 11?
63 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-40.65
- YES
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 4?
30 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- DOWN
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 4?
29 shares @ 70.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-20.17
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 66°F or higher on May 22?
21 shares @ 80.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-16.90
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on May 6?
20 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 27?
20 shares @ 38.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-7.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on February 25?
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on June 30?
17 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.30
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 21:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on July 22?$0.43Jul 22, 20:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?$1.11Jul 22, 15:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 21?$7.30Jul 22, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 102-103°F on July 22?$2.31Jul 22, 10:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 22?$0.33Jul 22, 09:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 22?$0.69Jul 22, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 22?$1.50Jul 22, 04:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 22?$1.14Jul 22, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 22?$1.09Jul 22, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C on July 22?$2.21Jul 22, 02:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 21?$0.43Jul 21, 17:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 21?$1.15Jul 21, 16:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 21?$0.35Jul 21, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 21?$1.22Jul 21, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on July 21?$1.13Jul 21, 10:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 21?$1.60Jul 21, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 21?$0.48Jul 21, 09:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 21?$0.48Jul 21, 09:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on July 21?$0.45Jul 21, 08:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $1.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 17, 03:33 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 21:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.