Wallet digest

active

Activity score

61/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.0K

Realised

$28.31

Win rate

79%

14 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 77

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
1508 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET
568 shares @ 43.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-249.80
YES
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?
326 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
YES
Will Panama win on 2026-05-31?
254 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-13.74
YES
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw?
252 shares @ 15.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026
$0.00
$-40.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
201 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-74.46
YES
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?
188 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
159 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
158 shares @ 43.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 30, 2026
$0.00
$-68.43
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
157 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-102.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$67.97Jun 26, 20:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$10.36Jun 26, 20:24 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET$20.62Jun 26, 20:24 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.00Jun 26, 20:20 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$98.63Jun 26, 20:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$3.00Jun 26, 20:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$60.50Jun 26, 20:13 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$5.13Jun 26, 20:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET$10.34Jun 26, 20:11 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$74.10Jun 26, 20:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$50.87Jun 26, 20:06 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.69Jun 26, 20:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$0.58Jun 26, 20:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$5.16Jun 26, 20:04 UTC
TRADESELLWill Senegal win on 2026-06-26?$26.17Jun 26, 20:03 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$33.47Jun 26, 20:03 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$29.37Jun 26, 20:01 UTC
TRADESELLWill France win on 2026-06-26?$29.42Jun 26, 20:00 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Senegal win on 2026-06-26?$22.13Jun 26, 17:05 UTC
TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-06-26?$22.19Jun 26, 17:04 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

41/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

79% win rate over 14 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence47 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry62 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk40 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 47
Avg trade size: $18.29
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 30, 09:58 UTC
Last active: Jun 26, 20:26 UTC
Win rate sample: 14 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 15:50:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data