Arid-Result
0x1702237cb12400199f1a1fffab1056a81712b026
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$6.01
Total PnL
$1.01
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$1.59
$0.59
- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
2 shares @ 66.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2024$1.50
$0.50
- YES
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 5, 2024$1.49
$0.49
- NO
Fact Check: Was there an order to hold fire?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2024$1.43
$0.43
- 50K
Will $BTC hit $50k or $70k first?
4 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2024$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill $BTC hit $50k or $70k first?$1.00Jul 18, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYFact Check: Was there an order to hold fire?$1.00Jul 18, 22:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?$1.00Jul 18, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?$1.00Jul 18, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?$1.00Jul 18, 22:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $1.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 22:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 22:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.