Ornery-Trap
0x1731e15d714dace003295565f1b82747f086f488
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$15.31
Total PnL
$-136.07
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
15 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$15.31
$0.31
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
2573 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-136.37
- YES
Solana all time high before 2026?
5 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET$15.02Jun 26, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana all time high before 2026?$0.01Dec 27, 16:08 UTC
- REDEEMTikTok banned in the US in 2024?$0.00Nov 30, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$136.37Nov 4, 23:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon tweet less than 150 times?$0.00Sep 12, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet less than 150 times?$0.01Sep 9, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYEigenlayer market cap (FDV) <$10b one day after launch?$0.01Sep 9, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana above $130 on September 13?$0.01Sep 9, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump launch a coin before the election?$0.01Sep 9, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYMonkeypox lab leak confirmed by US in 2024?$0.01Sep 9, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYConfirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30?$0.01Sep 9, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYElon Musk bans Apple devices at his companies?$0.01Sep 9, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYConfirmed case of monkeypox in US by Oct 31?$0.01Sep 9, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be less than 16 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?$0.01Sep 9, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUY2024 September hottest on record?$0.01Sep 9, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUY2024 September hottest on record?$0.01Sep 9, 10:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYTikTok banned in the US in 2024?$0.01Sep 9, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYUnrealized gains tax passed before election day?$0.01Sep 9, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet less than 150 times?$0.01Sep 9, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet less than 150 times?$0.01Sep 9, 10:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $5.06
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 9, 10:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 09:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.