0x173516ae13b47be650a6df996ec4ff2f24950319
0x173516ae13b47be650a6df996ec4ff2f24950319
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.85
Total PnL
$-681.51
Realised
$163.24
Win rate
84%
128 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on July 29?
900 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.45
$-8.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 29?
800 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.40
$-11.59
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 13?
2732 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-17.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C or below on May 20?
1942 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 20?
1892 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 24?
1750 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on April 14?
1613 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-6.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C or higher on April 17?
1508 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.96
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 37°C on July 28?
1500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on July 7?
1222 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.91
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$4.00Jul 29, 04:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 29?$0.14Jul 29, 04:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$1.65Jul 29, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?$0.39Jul 29, 04:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$2.01Jul 29, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?$0.03Jul 29, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?$2.57Jul 29, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 29?$0.06Jul 29, 04:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 30?$0.34Jul 29, 04:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$3.37Jul 29, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$3.20Jul 29, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 36°C on July 29?$3.00Jul 29, 04:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$2.10Jul 29, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$1.90Jul 29, 04:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 30?$2.96Jul 29, 04:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 30?$2.70Jul 29, 04:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 38°C on July 29?$2.65Jul 29, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 29?$0.17Jul 29, 03:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on July 29?$0.06Jul 29, 03:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 128 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
128 closed markets, 84% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 02:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 04:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 128 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.