Naive-Lotion
0x17559efac103ac7f361be37ec0b93888d4c55aac
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.3K
Total PnL
$-85.3K
Realised
$15.7K
Win rate
75%
139 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $345 end of July?
2778 shares @ 90.1¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.6K
$108.31
- YES
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $375 end of July?
1801 shares @ 71.8¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.4K
$94.45
- YES
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $240 end of July?
1864 shares @ 74.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$764.09
$-615.00
- YES
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of July?
534 shares @ 91.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$531.35
$41.65
- NO
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of July?
1207 shares @ 68.6¢·now 37.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$446.67
$-381.79
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $216 in July?
430 shares @ 45.0¢·now 96.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$414.91
$221.35
- YES
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of July?
264 shares @ 84.3¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$258.91
$36.58
- YES
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $60 in July?
393 shares @ 3.5¢·now 63.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$250.11
$236.52
- YES
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in July?
2181 shares @ 19.8¢·now 8.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$174.50
$-258.04
- YES
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.50 in July?
1207 shares @ 45.3¢·now 11.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$135.78
$-411.54
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on July 28?$277.90Jul 28, 20:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above $400 on July 28?$1.12Jul 28, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on July 28?$109.60Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- MERGEWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on July 28?$74.14Jul 28, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on July 28?$31.14Jul 28, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on July 28?$101.41Jul 28, 13:33 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$448.91Jul 28, 00:45 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$223.48Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$28.16Jul 28, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 27?$50.6KJul 27, 22:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google (GOOGL) close above $325 on July 27?$289.21Jul 27, 20:16 UTC
- REDEEMMicron (MU) Up or Down on July 27?$28.57Jul 27, 20:16 UTC
- REDEEMEWY (EWY) Up or Down on July 27?$46.38Jul 27, 20:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on July 27?$1.9KJul 27, 20:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) close above $230 on July 27?$1.7KJul 27, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on July 27?$29.50Jul 27, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on July 27?$0.35Jul 27, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on July 27?$1.36Jul 27, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYOpendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on July 27?$131.82Jul 27, 19:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 27?$2.5KJul 27, 19:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 139 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
139 closed markets, 75% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $160.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 19:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 139 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.