Shocked-Industrialisation
0x17573db529319cfa0ba0878638cf3c307e67bd49
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
86
Open notional
$64.66
Total PnL
$-1.37
Realised
$587.94
Win rate
71%
31 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 86- NO
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?
40 shares @ 74.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$40.00
$10.20
- YES
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?
20 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$20.00
$5.20
- NO
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?
2 shares @ 97.2¢·now 91.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.78
$-0.11
- NO
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?
1 shares @ 14.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$1.48
$1.27
- YES
Will Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2027?
16 shares @ 14.5¢·now 5.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.94
$-1.45
- YES
Will Katie Britt announce a presidential run before 2027?
20 shares @ 14.0¢·now 1.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.24
$-2.56
- YES
Will Phil Murphy announce a Presidential run before 2027?
15 shares @ 5.0¢·now 1.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.22
$-0.53
- YES
Will Patrick Knight win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
10 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.1¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.01
$-0.04
- NO
Will 'Hollow Knight: Silksong' win Game of the Year in the 2025 Steam Awards?
267 shares @ 77.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-206.04
- NO
Will Israel strike 1 country in December 2025?
261 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-7.93
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?$0.04Mar 18, 04:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?$0.20Mar 18, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Daniel Biss be the Democratic nominee for IL-09?$0.20Mar 18, 00:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?$3.70Mar 17, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?$14.80Mar 17, 10:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?$11.10Mar 17, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election?$15.00Mar 17, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.08Mar 17, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.08Mar 17, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$1.10Mar 17, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs AVULUS - Game 1 Winner$4.20Mar 17, 10:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?$1.00Mar 17, 09:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2027?$19.31Mar 17, 09:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?$1.40Jan 23, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Philip Funderburg win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary election?$0.18Jan 21, 22:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ted Cruz announce a presidential run before 2027?$3.30Jan 21, 06:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast hit 106.5 billion views by January 31?$0.02Jan 21, 01:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Patrick Knight win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?$0.02Jan 20, 22:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Thai Nation Party (UTN) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$0.00Jan 18, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kla Tham Party (KT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?$0.00Jan 18, 16:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
71/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 31 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
31 closed markets, 71% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 9, 05:01 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 18, 04:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 31 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.