Showy-Methane
0x17915038b8f5305d1a437e8201a8395efc63f8ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-245.99
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C or below on May 12?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 23?
400 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-8.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 23?
200 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 12?
152 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 23?
130 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-45.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on May 12?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 19°C on May 12?
120 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-19.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 20?
110 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 12?
100 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 16?
100 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.70
Recent activity
- REWARD$5.24May 25, 00:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 24?$3.86May 24, 05:34 UTC
- REWARD$1.46May 24, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 24?$0.24May 23, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 24?$1.20May 23, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 24?$6.23May 23, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 24?$3.12May 23, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 23?$3.33May 23, 04:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 23?$17.93May 23, 04:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 23?$3.28May 23, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 23?$0.34May 23, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 23?$0.15May 23, 03:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 23?$10.94May 23, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 23?$2.25May 23, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 23?$0.49May 23, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 23?$0.55May 23, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C or higher on May 23?$2.23May 23, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 23?$0.30May 23, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 23?$1.00May 23, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 23?$3.89May 23, 00:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 46/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $5.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 21:40 UTC
- Last active
- May 25, 00:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.