Vague-Grace
0x182400589b3a5042476b90901d832f258d5a571a
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.2K
Realised
$413.24
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
2375 shares @ 16.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-402.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 16?
2051 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?
1304 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-277.40
- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
1248 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-224.88
- YES
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?
1033 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $75 by end of March?
821 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-15.07
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?
513 shares @ 18.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-96.67
- NO
Will Tesla (TSLA) hit a 52-Week High by December 31?
512 shares @ 28.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-146.06
- YES
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?
481 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-80.26
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?
443 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-48.93
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$99.93Jul 10, 21:40 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - July 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$26.76Jul 10, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - July 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$26.09Jul 10, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-07-10?$15.64Jul 10, 20:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance$41.46Jul 10, 20:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill France win on 2026-07-09?$156.89Jul 10, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France win on 2026-07-09?$99.94Jul 8, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 25, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET$92.58Jun 25, 22:05 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$4.69Jun 25, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET$4.82Jun 25, 22:02 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$92.60Jun 25, 22:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$90.24Jun 25, 21:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$89.87Jun 25, 21:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET$93.23Jun 25, 21:55 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$0.00Jun 25, 21:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$16.80Jun 25, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$12.60Jun 25, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$2.10Jun 25, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$2.67Jun 25, 21:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$3.50Jun 25, 21:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $36.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 19, 17:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 21:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.