Generous-Beard
0x1847e1f5d948285ffd419ed255c1a512e06a6a63
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
31
Open notional
$2.50
Total PnL
$-880.20
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)
3 shares @ 20.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$2.50
$2.00
- YES
Khamenei seen in public by March 2?
1507 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-80.07
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week 1?
1500 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will Coldplay have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
1407 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.41
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
879 shares @ 28.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-251.43
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
684 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-355.52
- YES
Khamenei seen in public by February 28?
620 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-97.30
- YES
Will Kanye West have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
575 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.73
- YES
Will Andrew Tate post 190-219 posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?
494 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.86
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill a 10% US blanket tariff be in effect on March 31?$7.50Mar 8, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" this week? (March 8)$2.50Mar 8, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "El Salvador" this week? (March 8)$2.50Mar 8, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Maduro" this week? (March 8)$2.50Mar 8, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7?$10.92Mar 6, 15:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 8)$0.00Mar 6, 05:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" this week? (March 8)$0.00Mar 6, 05:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (March 8)$2.50Mar 6, 05:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Golf" or "Golfer" this week? (March 8)$2.50Mar 6, 05:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Wind" or "Solar" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?$2.63Mar 4, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "India and Pakistan" or "India Pakistan" this week? (March 8)$2.86Mar 4, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran hold a presidential election by June 30?$7.00Mar 2, 18:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Camp" this week? (March 8)$2.48Mar 2, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Nazi" this week? (March 8)$4.96Mar 2, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$251.43Mar 1, 08:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?$251.43Mar 1, 08:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$355.52Mar 1, 07:36 UTC
- REWARD$1.94Mar 1, 00:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei seen in public by March 2?$0.07Feb 28, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei seen in public by March 2?$10.00Feb 28, 21:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $45.32
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 28, 17:01 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 8, 07:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.