First-Cupcake
0x18ba2f59b1c86c155420b9fe3c200608e13cd9f4
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-422.15
Realised
$-1.48
Win rate
39%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
1179 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-12.91
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
125 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.53
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
107 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-45.22
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
105 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.70
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
60 shares @ 21.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.70
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET
21 shares @ 43.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-9.03
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
17 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.68
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$1.05May 13, 18:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$1.02May 13, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET$1.03May 13, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?$1.46May 13, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?$2.85May 13, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?$1.69May 13, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?$3.34May 13, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$0.00May 13, 14:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$2.41May 13, 14:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.13May 13, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.01May 13, 14:33 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$2.65May 13, 14:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.02May 13, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$1.02May 13, 14:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$6.60May 13, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$6.05May 13, 14:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET$1.05May 13, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$1.05May 13, 14:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$1.05May 13, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$1.04May 13, 14:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
39% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $3.77
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 13, 05:15 UTC
- Last active
- May 13, 18:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.