Wallet digest

active

Activity score

34/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-791.61

Realised

$-42.14

Win rate

11%

18 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
927 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-9.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET
463 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-7.15
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET
290 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-7.26
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
229 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-4.94
NO
NRFI: Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
191 shares @ 9.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026
$0.00
$-18.59
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET
189 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-2.29
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET
186 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-1.86
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET
124 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026
$0.00
$-4.95
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET
110 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026
$0.00
$-0.98
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
94 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026
$0.00
$-5.80

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET$2.89May 16, 16:30 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$0.52May 16, 11:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$2.96May 16, 11:03 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$5.94May 16, 10:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$3.12May 16, 10:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$3.15May 16, 10:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET$2.92May 16, 10:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET$2.82May 16, 10:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$3.15May 15, 18:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET$5.18May 15, 18:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$4.73May 15, 18:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$3.10May 15, 18:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET$3.05May 15, 18:06 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$0.39May 15, 16:19 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET$3.10May 15, 16:18 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET$18.78May 15, 14:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET$6.30May 15, 13:55 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$2.70May 15, 12:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$1.58May 15, 12:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$3.19May 15, 11:53 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

46/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

11% win rate over 18 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence60 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry62 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk36 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 46
Avg trade size: $4.29
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 14, 22:31 UTC
Last active: May 16, 16:30 UTC
Win rate sample: 18 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:15:28 UTC·src:Polymarket Data