Fatal-Conservative
0x1917817e5ff76ff1682649dd14832cc5efded7da
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$7.75
Total PnL
$-1.25
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$4.35
$3.35
- YES
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?
1 shares @ 70.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$1.43
$0.43
- YES
Will there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 98.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
4 shares @ 24.3¢·now 23.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.96
$-0.04
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 17?
250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the USA report a 7-day COVID-19 case average of 200k or more before January 1, 2022?
117 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 8, 2022$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?
7 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?
3 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$1.00Mar 28, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.00Mar 28, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?$1.00Jan 15, 23:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 175 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?$1.00Jan 15, 23:03 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down on November 18?$4.55Jan 15, 23:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on November 18?$4.00Nov 18, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on November 18?$1.00Nov 18, 10:47 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on October 17?$1.00Nov 18, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12AM ET$1.00Oct 18, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?$1.00Oct 17, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 17?$1.00Oct 17, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on October 17?$1.00Oct 17, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$1.00Oct 17, 15:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 11
- Avg trade size
- $1.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 17, 15:43 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 28, 07:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.