Frozen-Caution
0x19337d89ae827305848732d87849d76edbea1a53
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
95
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-523.65
Realised
$-92.31
Win rate
34%
82 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 95- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on May 29?
400 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?
160 shares @ 65.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-105.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 79°F or below on May 17?
137 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.15
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 67°F or below on May 28?
130 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 7?
60 shares @ 13.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-8.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5?
40 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 4?
40 shares @ 64.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-25.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7?
40 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-4.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 9?
40 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 5?
40 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-2.80
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$19.98Jun 17, 13:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17?$19.05Jun 17, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17?$0.87Jun 17, 12:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$6.75Jun 17, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$9.80Jun 17, 08:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$2.00Jun 17, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$10.00Jun 17, 08:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$10.00Jun 17, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17?$5.21Jun 17, 05:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$4.34Jun 17, 04:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$2.00Jun 17, 04:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$1.66Jun 17, 03:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$12.00Jun 17, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17?$5.00Jun 17, 03:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17?$0.84Jun 17, 03:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$8.00Jun 17, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$12.00Jun 17, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$8.40Jun 17, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 17?$11.60Jun 17, 02:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17?$6.80Jun 17, 02:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
34% win rate over 82 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
82 closed markets, 34% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $7.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 16, 06:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 17, 13:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 82 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.