Chilly-Mukluk-Handful
0x193e79d1c818c562e849c519ab5dd16ee17d22e6
Wallet digest
Activity score
54/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$263.16
Total PnL
$-165.44
Realised
$-5.42
Win rate
0%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on August 12?
150 shares @ 44.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$65.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on August 12?
150 shares @ 49.0¢·now 34.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$51.75
$-21.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on August 12?
116 shares @ 38.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$49.20
$5.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 12?
139 shares @ 31.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$43.94
$0.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 12?
150 shares @ 19.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$18.74
$-9.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?
107 shares @ 16.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$17.62
$0.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on August 12?
150 shares @ 5.0¢·now 10.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$15.00
$7.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 12?
4 shares @ 25.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$1.66
$0.54
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 32°C on August 6?
256 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 6?
144 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 12?$1.64Aug 12, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$1.36Aug 12, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$0.71Aug 12, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$9.50Aug 12, 10:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$0.19Aug 12, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$0.19Aug 12, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$0.19Aug 12, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 12?$0.45Aug 12, 10:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$0.80Aug 12, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 12?$1.55Aug 12, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$0.82Aug 12, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 12?$1.60Aug 12, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 12?$0.45Aug 12, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$0.80Aug 12, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$0.62Aug 12, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 12?$1.90Aug 12, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 12?$20.20Aug 12, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 12?$0.23Aug 12, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 12?$0.82Aug 12, 08:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on August 12?$1.09Aug 12, 08:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 32/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 12, 03:27 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 10:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.