Aged-Compass
0x1941ca5d7f587827da004b1b1551b0bd6429deea
Wallet digest
Activity score
41/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
196
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$-164.04
Win rate
28%
78 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 196- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19?
4530 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026$0.00
$-10.16
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10?
4186 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-44.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on July 26?
2211 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-6.63
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10?
1541 shares @ 7.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-113.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11?
1520 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-8.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11?
1250 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10?
1144 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-17.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12?
1122 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$0.00
$-7.28
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11?
1115 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-48.60
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11?
1052 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.54
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 29?$662.53Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 29?$1.8KJul 28, 16:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 28?$162.00Jul 28, 15:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 29?$2.4KJul 28, 14:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 29?$14.16Jul 28, 10:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 29?$24.65Jul 28, 10:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 29?$2.00Jul 28, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 29?$2.00Jul 28, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 29?$34.61Jul 28, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 29?$26.58Jul 28, 10:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 29?$28.58Jul 28, 09:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 28?$0.13Jul 28, 09:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 28?$27.69Jul 28, 09:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 28?$1.82Jul 28, 09:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 28?$0.78Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 28?$2.27Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on July 28?$0.75Jul 28, 08:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 28?$1.15Jul 28, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on July 28?$1.68Jul 28, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on July 28?$0.40Jul 28, 08:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
28% win rate over 78 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
78 closed markets, 28% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $140.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 04:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 16:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 78 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.