Splendid-Mayonnaise
0x194210be97e9b2c1dd1a8c0755c98eca6250559c
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$22.25
Total PnL
$-344.63
Realised
$-55.89
Win rate
6%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
227 shares @ 2.2¢·now 5.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.70
$6.70
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
13 shares @ 40.0¢·now 40.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$5.06
$0.06
- OVER
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 1.5
3 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$2.74
$0.74
- NO
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw?
3 shares @ 73.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$2.74
$0.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on October 20?
1012 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 12AM ET
703 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on October 20?
675 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-7.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 67-68°F on October 20?
373 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 71-72°F on October 21?
344 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 21, 2025$0.00
$-7.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or higher on October 23?
330 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 23, 2025$0.00
$-16.14
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
6% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 3, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.