Harmless-Sign
0x195c2943b9925f4a82b9e45a92f668238b2a5f9a
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$264.97
Total PnL
$41.70
Realised
$297.67
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
868 shares @ 11.5¢·now 14.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$121.04
$21.04
- YES
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship?
7116 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.9¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$67.61
$-32.39
- YES
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship?
6278 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.7¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$40.80
$-59.19
- YES
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship?
977 shares @ 3.1¢·now 3.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$29.80
$-0.20
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026?
765 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$3.44
$-37.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
24 shares @ 17.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.27
$-1.79
- YES
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?
1071 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-30.23
- YES
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?
339 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026?
238 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus model be released on July 27, 2026?$41.97Jul 23, 04:29 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 20:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
2 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 2
- Avg trade size
- $26.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 04:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.