Avaricious-Salt
0x19a6c3bce19a7c337bcee656bb6f510ff55b1cec
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
100
Open notional
$111.10
Total PnL
$-32.35
Realised
$2.38
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 100- NO
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30?
2 shares @ 98.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.00
$0.03
- NO
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 97.6¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.00
$0.04
- NO
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?
2 shares @ 96.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.99
$0.06
- NO
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
2 shares @ 95.3¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.99
$0.08
- NO
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 89.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.99
$0.21
- NO
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?
2 shares @ 97.5¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.98
$0.03
- NO
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?
2 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.98
$0.00
- NO
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.98
$0.16
- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.98
$0.26
- NO
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026?
2 shares @ 98.8¢·now 98.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.98
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31?$1.04Jun 25, 09:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$2.04Jun 21, 19:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?$0.64Jun 19, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30?$1.99Jun 18, 13:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$0.34Jun 17, 08:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?$0.91Jun 16, 12:12 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$1.98Jun 16, 12:12 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by June 30?$1.98Jun 16, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?$1.99Jun 16, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$1.99Jun 16, 12:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?$1.02Jun 15, 13:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?$1.98Jun 14, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?$1.22Jun 14, 21:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$3.98Jun 14, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$1.73Jun 13, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$1.68Jun 13, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$1.02Jun 13, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$1.81Jun 13, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?$1.80Jun 13, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?$1.08Jun 13, 11:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 1, 07:24 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 25, 09:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.