Avaricious-Salt
0x19a6c3bce19a7c337bcee656bb6f510ff55b1cec
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$117.27
Total PnL
$-41.24
Realised
$11.23
Win rate
23%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- NO
Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
3 shares @ 48.7¢·now 78.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$2.34
$0.88
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the September interest rate announcement?
2 shares @ 97.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Sep 2, 2026$1.99
$0.04
- NO
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026?
2 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.99
$0.01
- NO
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?
2 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.98
$0.01
- NO
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be 12 or more?
2 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.98
$0.01
- NO
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be exactly 6?
2 shares @ 98.8¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.98
$0.00
- NO
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by August 31?
2 shares @ 98.9¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.98
$0.00
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.9¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.98
$0.01
- NO
Will the number of Democratic House members who retire in 2026 be fewer than 20?
2 shares @ 97.7¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.97
$0.02
- NO
Will the number of Republican Senate members who retire in 2026 be less than 5?
2 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.97
$0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?$2.00Aug 14, 11:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$2.00Aug 14, 11:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$2.00Aug 14, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$1.88Aug 12, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$1.46Aug 12, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$1.52Aug 12, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?$1.59Aug 12, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?$1.52Aug 12, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Fishback finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$1.52Aug 12, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jay Collins finish second in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$1.52Aug 12, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?$1.56Aug 12, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?$1.08Aug 12, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?$1.60Aug 12, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 30% or more?$1.86Aug 12, 17:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$1.64Aug 12, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$1.97Aug 12, 16:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%?$1.07Aug 12, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06?$1.96Aug 12, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill George Pickens play for Dallas Cowboys in 2026-27?$1.87Aug 12, 16:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?$1.49Aug 12, 16:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
23% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
30 closed markets, 23% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $1.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 04:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 11:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.