Wallet digest

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-91.6K

Realised

$-151.90

Win rate

36%

22 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
8535 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 2, 2025
$0.00
$-13.63
YES
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
5000 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026
$0.00
$-1.1K
NO
Will Trump lower tariffs on China in April?
3333 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2025
$0.00
$-20.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
2105 shares @ 52.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025
$0.00
$-1.1K
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
1900 shares @ 44.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-837.36
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
1900 shares @ 42.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-800.09
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET
1880 shares @ 52.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 29, 2025
$0.00
$-979.81
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
1805 shares @ 49.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025
$0.00
$-897.61
YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
1697 shares @ 5.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025
$0.00
$-90.00
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
1599 shares @ 56.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025
$0.00
$-897.07

Recent activity

REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 22, 7AM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 21, 10PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 23, 2PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMHawks vs. Cavaliers$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 23, 5PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 23, 5PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 23, 11PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 22, 7PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - March 22, 11AM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 23, 1AM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 21, 2PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 23, 1AM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 24, 12AM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 25, 7PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 21, 3PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 23, 6PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 24, 8AM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - March 22, 6PM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 25, 6AM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - March 23, 5AM ET$0.00Apr 16, 12:08 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

57/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

36% win rate over 22 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record

review

22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence73 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry93 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 0
Avg trade size: $0.00
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
Last active: Apr 16, 12:08 UTC
Win rate sample: 22 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:20:07 UTC·src:Polymarket Data