Zealous-Samovar
0x19f45a25608cbf60f63a6bad50354b74e83bc772
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-13.9K
Realised
$-469.53
Win rate
3%
172 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 25?
6367 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-176.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 18?
3220 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-203.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on August 2?
1845 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$0.00
$-15.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on July 25?
1674 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 25?
1616 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-73.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 23?
1282 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-38.58
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on July 4?
1269 shares @ 40.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$0.00
$-509.31
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on July 25?
1236 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on July 22?
1215 shares @ 5.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-63.32
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 19?
1213 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-205.79
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 16?$11.70Aug 16, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 16?$11.68Aug 16, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?$11.48Aug 16, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?$10.71Aug 16, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?$10.66Aug 16, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?$10.61Aug 16, 15:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 15?$60.00Aug 16, 10:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 15?$15.00Aug 16, 02:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 15?$15.00Aug 15, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 15?$12.27Aug 15, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 15?$11.68Aug 15, 20:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 15?$11.97Aug 15, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on August 15?$11.83Aug 15, 20:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 14?$30.00Aug 15, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 15?$14.07Aug 15, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 15?$14.30Aug 15, 08:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on August 14?$30.00Aug 14, 22:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on August 14?$15.00Aug 14, 22:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 14?$12.58Aug 14, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 14?$12.56Aug 14, 20:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
56/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 172 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
172 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $14.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 21:18 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 16, 20:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 172 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.