Deadly-Question
0x1a0e5b22a1cc4b90ba3d96f6c1c7b7cef6c5b3f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$4.47
Total PnL
$-8.04
Realised
$-0.90
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- DOMINIC STEPHAN STRICKER
Sion: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Tommaso Compagnucci
1 shares @ 93.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 28, 2026$1.08
$0.08
- NO
Will GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.07
$-0.00
- YES
Will "My Brilliant Career: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 25, 2026$1.04
$0.03
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in August?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- YES
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
1 shares @ 76.8¢·now 21.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$0.29
$-0.74
- YES
Will any other team finish third in the 2025 F1 Constructors' Championship?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-0.66
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 28, 2025$0.00
$-0.65
- YES
Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings?
1 shares @ 71.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-0.85
- YES
Will December 2025 be the 1st hottest on record?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-0.57
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 17 be greater than 2,800,000?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.56
Recent activity
- REWARD$6.02Aug 22, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "My Brilliant Career: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?$1.01Aug 21, 16:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?$3.90Aug 21, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in August?$3.97Aug 21, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?$1.04Aug 21, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GitHub's longest critical incident in August 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?$5.00Aug 21, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $152 in August?$5.00Aug 21, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYSion: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Tommaso Compagnucci$1.00Aug 21, 15:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?$1.00Aug 21, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Radical Left Lunatic" this week?$1.00Aug 21, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the July interest rate announcement?$1.00Aug 21, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP reach $1.30 June 29-July 5?$1.01Aug 21, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Egypt win the World Cup?$1.06Aug 21, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?$1.06Aug 21, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on July 6?$1.07Aug 21, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$1.07Aug 21, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026?$1.08Aug 21, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of July 18?$1.12Aug 21, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Small Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jul 5, 17:27 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?$2.91Jul 5, 17:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $4.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 7, 06:43 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 22, 00:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.