Roasted-Trapezium
0x1a11c4e9d41451111650457598a63e480f50e55d
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-616.74
Realised
$27.81
Win rate
96%
57 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20?
1667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17?
1016 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20?
460 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 28?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 9?
110 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-4.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C on July 13?
104 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.96
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
102 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 29, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 14?
93 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 2?
89 shares @ 44.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-39.56
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 15?$6.09Jul 14, 20:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 14?$1.45Jul 14, 09:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 14?$1.62Jul 14, 06:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 14?$1.48Jul 14, 05:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on July 14?$1.90Jul 14, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 14?$0.51Jul 14, 00:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 14?$4.71Jul 13, 23:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C or below on July 15?$2.33Jul 13, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 13?$18.13Jul 13, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 15?$2.19Jul 13, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 15?$1.45Jul 13, 21:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 14?$2.68Jul 13, 21:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 15?$0.81Jul 13, 21:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 15?$2.82Jul 13, 18:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 15?$5.21Jul 13, 18:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 14?$0.98Jul 13, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 14?$1.17Jul 13, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 14?$1.20Jul 13, 17:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on July 14?$1.05Jul 13, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 14?$1.00Jul 13, 16:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
96% win rate over 57 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
57 closed markets, 96% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 00:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 20:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 57 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.