Tired-Naturalisation
0x1a28e1cfe14996e2e3a6a202c0809e64bf3e035b
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
19
Open notional
$209.80
Total PnL
$-1.71
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?
35 shares @ 86.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$34.49
$4.48
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
32 shares @ 92.7¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$30.89
$0.92
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
24 shares @ 83.5¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$21.66
$1.68
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 4?
13 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$12.80
$2.81
- YES
Will "Toy Story 5" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?
13 shares @ 79.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$12.25
$2.26
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 4?
11 shares @ 90.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$11.04
$1.05
- NO
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?
11 shares @ 88.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$10.50
$0.51
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?
11 shares @ 92.0¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$10.35
$0.36
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 4?
10 shares @ 86.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$10.00
$1.37
- NO
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
12 shares @ 81.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$9.93
$-0.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on July 4?$15.86Jul 4, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on July 4?$10.04Jul 4, 17:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$2.00Jul 4, 17:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$2.00Jul 4, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?$0.00Jul 4, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?$10.08Jul 4, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?$10.08Jul 4, 16:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Taylor Swift get married in Manhattan?$0.00Jul 4, 16:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 4?$10.67Jul 4, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 4?$5.00Jul 4, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 4?$0.00Jul 4, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 16m and 18m?$10.05Jul 4, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on July 4?$10.10Jul 4, 15:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 4?$11.55Jul 4, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "I Will Find You" be the top US Netflix show this week?$10.07Jul 4, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 4?$8.69Jul 4, 14:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 4?$10.10Jul 4, 08:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Martin Schmierer win the 2026 Norfolk Police and Crime Commissioner by-election?$10.28Jul 4, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on July 4?$10.17Jul 4, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 3?$0.00Jul 4, 07:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $7.78
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 13:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 19:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.