Annual-Shanty
0x1a3a6005423549954c073206fe72658a81641550
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-473.03
Realised
$80.77
Win rate
92%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 January 12-18?
364 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- NO
US strikes Iraq by March 7?
318 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-155.82
- NO
Will Leavitt say "Regime" 10+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?
306 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-9.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 580-599 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?
100 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?$0.00Mar 26, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?$73.00Mar 26, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Common Sense" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?$22.88Mar 26, 00:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Common Sense" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?$7.75Mar 26, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?$28.50Mar 25, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?$9.00Mar 25, 22:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?$0.38Mar 25, 21:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Leavitt say "Democrat Shutdown" during the next White House Press Briefing?$20.00Mar 25, 21:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Leavitt say "AI" or "Intelligence" during the next White House Press Briefing?$26.51Mar 25, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "AI" or "Intelligence" during the next White House Press Briefing?$20.00Mar 25, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Regime" 10+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$2.00Mar 25, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Go ahead" 5+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$8.40Mar 25, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Democrat Shutdown" during the next White House Press Briefing?$7.39Mar 25, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Regime" 10+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$0.57Mar 25, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Democrat Shutdown" during the next White House Press Briefing?$3.81Mar 25, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Leavitt say "Regime" 10+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$6.63Mar 25, 15:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?$142.52Mar 25, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?$95.00Mar 25, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?$10.40Mar 25, 13:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?$0.00Mar 24, 15:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
92% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $26.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 15:25 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 26, 14:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.