Instructive-Cummerbund
0x1a4400633e6fef53b1385b367c265966a75c6d3f
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-398.60
Realised
$0.80
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will NASA estimate a 4% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?
246 shares @ 41.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-102.03
- YES
Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?
205 shares @ 26.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-54.33
- YES
Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?
135 shares @ 71.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-96.80
- YES
Will an FBI agent be charged for leaking ICE plans?
71 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-44.16
- YES
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?
64 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.56
- YES
Will the Orlando Magic win more than 51.5 regular season games in 2025–26?
38 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-20.81
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?
24 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-13.21
- YES
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025?
20 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-7.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$10.00May 9, 18:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Bad Bunny) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?$1.00May 9, 18:52 UTC
- TRADESELLSCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? $72.24Feb 12, 13:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Henri Bontenbal become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?$4.63Nov 7, 11:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?$11.89Oct 30, 15:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$51.00Oct 30, 14:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Oct 30, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$41.88Oct 29, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?$63.08Oct 29, 19:22 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$8.65Oct 29, 12:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a new Cabinet of the Netherlands be sworn in by March 31, 2026?$32.04Oct 29, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$16.78Oct 29, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$25.11Oct 29, 06:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?$10.00Oct 29, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?$1.00Oct 29, 05:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1?$13.48Oct 29, 00:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1?$33.00Oct 29, 00:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill MrBeast's next video get less than 70 million views on week 1?$5.00Oct 29, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$8.51Oct 28, 22:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paramount acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?$8.60Oct 28, 22:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $27.16
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 27, 20:16 UTC
- Last active
- May 9, 18:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.