Stupendous-Garb
0x1b078bd6c1da2dff05f52c8d3c10c4e22f11a7c5
Wallet digest
Activity score
35/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
187
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-10.6K
Realised
$-21.15
Win rate
13%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 187- YES
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?
5303 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.5K
- YES
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17?
4400 shares @ 93.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.1K
- YES
Will AZ win on 2026-05-17?
2000 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.4K
- OVER
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 8.5 Total Corners
311 shares @ 62.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-195.19
- OVER
Valencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 8.5 Total Corners
310 shares @ 66.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-204.60
- YES
Will Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?
270 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-9.71
- YES
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 6-9%?
250 shares @ 9.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-23.55
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
215 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-25.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or higher on April 6?
202 shares @ 62.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-125.24
- YES
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-14?
140 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 8?$13.16Jul 8, 22:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 7?$17.86Jul 8, 05:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 7?$12.50Jul 7, 21:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 6?$13.51Jul 6, 23:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 6?$10.60Jul 6, 22:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on July 7?$3.00Jul 6, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 7?$5.00Jul 6, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on July 7?$5.23Jul 6, 12:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 8?$0.25Jul 6, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 8?$1.47Jul 6, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 8?$0.18Jul 6, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 8?$0.31Jul 6, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 7?$1.97Jul 6, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 8?$0.75Jul 6, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 8?$5.16Jul 6, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 8?$4.16Jul 6, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on July 8?$3.17Jul 6, 06:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on July 7?$5.21Jul 6, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 7?$3.14Jul 6, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 7?$5.21Jul 6, 06:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
44/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $3.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 4, 18:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 8, 22:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.