0x1b2c3a397fa667a06cb5d3b7df788107fc674bad
0x1b2c3a397fa667a06cb5d3b7df788107fc674bad
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
60
Open notional
$500.00
Total PnL
$-331.77
Realised
$-0.03
Win rate
67%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
500 shares @ 50.0¢·now 62.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$311.25
$61.25
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
500 shares @ 50.0¢·now 37.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$188.75
$-61.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on May 7?
100 shares @ 5.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-5.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 7?
100 shares @ 38.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-38.33
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 7?
100 shares @ 35.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-35.36
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 7?
96 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 7, 2026$0.00
$-0.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C or below on May 5?
70 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on May 5?
70 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-19.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 11°C on May 5?
70 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.07
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 8?
70 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 8, 2026$0.00
$-2.06
Recent activity
No activity on record.
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- —
- Last active
- —
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.