Crazy-Ornament
0x1b4cc1e424c8cf8fd4b01fd5f910f82797f0d6a2
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-668.88
Realised
$18.87
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
2135 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-64.05
- NO
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30?
1085 shares @ 12.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-132.02
- NO
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in June?
814 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-21.72
- ANDRES ANDRADE
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Andres Andrade vs Colton Smith
278 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026$0.00
$-30.58
- NO
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?
240 shares @ 16.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-39.15
- NO
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
135 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-12.89
- CLEMENT TABUR
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki
116 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-11.56
- NIELS MCDONALD
Targu Mures: Cezar Cretu vs Niels McDonald
112 shares @ 9.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026$0.00
$-11.13
- NO
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?
91 shares @ 78.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-70.77
- NO
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal?
86 shares @ 82.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-71.26
Recent activity
- TRADESELL0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$14.48Jul 23, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$14.04Jul 23, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$11.00Jul 23, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$15.00Jul 22, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$15.00Jul 22, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$15.00Jul 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$15.00Jul 22, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$16.05Jul 22, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$15.00Jul 22, 01:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$15.00Jul 22, 01:42 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$15.68Jul 21, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$15.33Jul 21, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$14.83Jul 21, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?$14.83Jul 21, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$14.50Jul 21, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$15.00Jul 21, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?$15.00Jul 21, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$15.00Jul 21, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$15.00Jul 21, 01:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$0.85Jul 20, 20:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $10.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 18, 21:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 20:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.