Celebrated-Primary
0x1b81602b1d2e8b9d73087618bc044d65d1e8ed26
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
86
Open notional
$48.74
Total PnL
$1.62
Realised
$3.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 86- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?
6 shares @ 9.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$6.00
$5.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 27?
6 shares @ 9.1¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$5.98
$5.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on July 27?
6 shares @ 9.1¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$5.97
$5.43
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?
11 shares @ 27.2¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$5.00
$2.01
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 27?
6 shares @ 9.1¢·now 50.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$3.00
$2.45
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 29?
6 shares @ 9.1¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.85
$2.30
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 28?
6 shares @ 9.1¢·now 41.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$2.49
$1.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on July 28?
6 shares @ 9.1¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$2.10
$1.55
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 28?
6 shares @ 9.1¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$2.01
$1.46
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 29?
6 shares @ 9.1¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$1.98
$1.43
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 27?$0.60Jul 27, 12:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 28?$4.00Jul 27, 11:54 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 27?$6.00Jul 27, 09:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on July 27?$1.25Jul 27, 09:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 27?$5.10Jul 27, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on July 27?$0.72Jul 27, 08:55 UTC
- CONVERSIONHighest temperature in Wellington on July 29?$0.00Jul 27, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on July 29?$4.26Jul 27, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 29?$2.51Jul 27, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 27?$0.30Jul 27, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 29?$0.60Jul 27, 07:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 27?$0.06Jul 27, 06:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on July 27?$1.04Jul 27, 06:55 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 28?$5.00Jul 27, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 28?$0.60Jul 27, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on July 28?$4.43Jul 27, 06:30 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 28?$6.00Jul 27, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 28?$2.28Jul 27, 06:22 UTC
- CONVERSIONLowest temperature in Shanghai on July 29?$0.00Jul 27, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 29?$5.31Jul 27, 06:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $2.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 19:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 27, 12:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.